2013 Statewide Load Impact Evaluation of California Aggregator Demand Response Programs Volume 2: Baseline Analysis

Categories: Demand Response, Load Impact Evaluation -    View PDF

April 1, 2014 - Dan Hansen and Dave Armstrong

This second volume of the aggregator program evaluation report for program-year 2013 contains an analysis of the performance of the current program baseline methods and of a number of potential alternative baseline methods. The baseline analysis was ordered in the CPUC decision regarding DR activities and budgets for 2012 through 2014. Settlement baselines are critical components of demand response programs such as the aggregator programs, as they serve as the reference point for measuring program load reductions for which customers and aggregators receive credit payments, and utilities receive resource credits. The baseline analysis in this study focuses on differences in baseline performance under conditions such as: 1) using aggregations of individual customer baselines, compared to baselines for portfolios of customers; 2) using a range of caps on day-of percentage baseline adjustments; and 3) assuming that all baselines are subject to day-of adjustments, rather than just those for which customers actually selected the adjustment. Baseline performance is measured by both how accurate the method is, regardless of the sign of baseline errors (where baseline errors are defined as the difference between a given calculated baseline and the “true” baseline), and whether the baseline method tends to be biased upward or downward (i.e., the baseline method tends to under-state or over-state the true baseline).

Citation & Download

Steven D. Braithwait, Dan Hansen, David Armstrong, 2013 Statewide Load Impact Evaluation of California Aggregator Demand Response Programs Volume 2: Baseline Analysis, CALMAC Study ID PGE0341.02, April 1, 2014.

Volume 1 of this report is available here.